Beef output during the winter and spring is forecasted by the USDA to track 3.9% above 2015 but still be 3.2% less than the five year average for the period. Beef demand has been seasonally lethargic both domestically and export. This may keep a lid on the beef markets in the near term. However, history suggests that the beef markets could begin to rise shortly and buyers should prepare for the upcoming grilling season. The USDA choice boxed beef cutout has bottomed in mid-February four of the last five years. The five year average move for the choice 180 0x1 strip between now and early June is a rise of 45%.
| Product Description | Market Trend | Supplies | Price vs. Last Year |
| Live Cattle | Decreasing | Short | Lower |
| Feeder Cattle Index (CME) | Decreasing | Short | Lower |
| Ground Beef 81/19 | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| Ground Chuck | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 109 Export Rib (ch) | Increasing | Good | Higher |
| 109 Export Rib (pr) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 112a Ribeye (ch) | Increasing | Good | Higher |
| 112a Ribeye (pr) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 114a Chuck, Shlder Cld (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 116 Chuck (sel) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 116 Chuck (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 116b Chuck Tender (ch) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 120 Brisket (choice) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 120a Brisket (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 121e Cap & Wedge | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 168 Inside Round (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 169 Top Round (ch) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 171b Outside Round (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 174 Short Loin (pr 2×3) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 180 1×1 Strip (ch) | Increasing | Good | Higher |
| 180 1×1 Strip (pr) | Steady | Good | Lower |
| 180 0x1 Strip (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) | Increasing | Good | Higher |
| 189a Tender (pr, heavy) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 193 Flank Steak (ch) | Decreasing | Good | Higher |
| 50% Trimmings | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 65% Trimmings | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| 75% Trimmings | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 85% Trimmings | Increasing | Short | Lower |
| 90% Trimmings | Decreasing | Short | Lower |
| 90% Imported Beef (frz) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| 95% Imported Beef (frz) | Increasing | Good | Lower |
| Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
| Veal Top Round (cap off) | Decreasing | Good | Lower |
*This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that a person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell futures or options on futures contracts or OTC products. Covered parties (as defined below) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages of any kind, whatsoever (including attorney’s fees and lost profits or savings) in any way due to, resulting from, or arising in connection with the Market Trends Report, including its content, regardless of any negligence of the covered party including but not limited to technical inaccuracies and typographical errors. “Covered Parties” is defined as American Restaurant Association Inc., ARA Trading and the employees of both companies. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks before trading. ©2014 American Restaurant Association Inc. This publication is protected under U.S. copyright law. Please do not redistribute without permission. Thank you.
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